By Asia Salati
In June, European Union citizens will be asked to vote, make their voices heard, and once again shape the future of the EU. In 2019, the victory of populist and far-right parties seemed inevitable.
However, they did not achieve the results they had hoped for, being outperformed by the traditional center-left and center-right parties and coalitions. This time, however, the danger appears to be real and could significantly alter the assets and balances of Europe.
Far-right parties are steadily gaining ground in national elections across many EU capitals.
Wherever we look, the signs are far from encouraging. Even with the recent victory of liberals in Poland, the far-right surge continues. A few days ago, Chega party won the elections in Portugal, and this case is not isolated. Italy, Austria, Belgium, The Netherlands, and France are all following, or have already followed, the same trend.
In Italy and France, the most recent surveys show that the political forces affiliated with ID or ECR are over 30%. In Italy Lega and Fratelli d’Italia bring the percentage up to 34%, and in France, Rassemblement National is at 31%. In Germany the AFD (Alternative für Deutschland) reaches 19%. Spain is a bit of an exception, with Vox at 10%.
It is often said that the European Parliament elections are essentially 27 national elections or second-round elections. However, let’s not be deceived by this notion:even though they may not directly influence national governments, these elections are pivotal and provide significant insights into the state of democracy within the EU and the ‘health’ of its components. They reveal, for instance, an unprecedented fragmentation and polarization of European party systems in today’s context.
In 2024 it is likely to see a continuation of this trend also at the European level.
Early polls suggest that the political balance in the European Parliament will shift dramatically to the right. Researchers indicate that the two primary political groups in the Parliament – the EPP and S&D – will likely continue to lose seats, while there is a notable rise in support for extremist and smaller parties throughout Europe. Even including the RE group, the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups will only hold 54 percent of the seats, compared to its current 60 percent.
“Another Europe without socialists in charge is possible and necessary,” declared Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’s right-wing Lega party, during the rally of the ID’s 14 constituent parties in Florence.
To disrupt the traditional alliances, commonly referred to as the Grand Coalition, he asserted that following the June European elections, anti-EU groups should also unite with them, whether within the EPP or the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).
Speaking of ECR and ID, Hungary’s Minister of the Prime Minister’s Office, Gergely Gulyás, stated this week: “I see a realistic chance for these two factions to become the strongest faction in the European Parliament together.” It is expected, in fact, that these two groups together will account for 25 per cent of MEPs, thus holding more seats combined than either the EPP or the S&D.
What is at stake: implications and consequences for the EU’s policy agenda.
“The far right is a poison for democracy. They have no project other than to destroy democracy and our common social Europe,” said Nicolas Schmit, Luxembourg’s EU commissioner, and candidate for the role of President of the European Commission.
For the first time, there is a significant chance that the far-right will be able to influence Europe’s policy agenda. In the most extreme scenario, this could potentially endanger and even undermine EU core values, such as the rule of law and the protection of human rights.
“The very soul of Europe is at risk,” warned Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, during the PES meeting in Rome on March 2.
The increasing influence of conservatives and sovereigntists could also impact significant European policies, like the new Pact on Migration and Asylum, and potentially obstruct or even reverse crucial environmental and climate legislation. These actions would pose a significant threat to the EU’s Green Deal framework and hinder the adoption and enforcement of unified policies designed to reach the EU’s net zero targets.
Finally, it’s worth noting that given the Eurosceptic position of the ECR and ID, along with specific national parties within the EPP, there is a potential for securing majorities in the forthcoming parliament in support of providing member states with increased economic, fiscal, and regulatory autonomy, slowing down the speed of the European integration process.
To sum up:
This article should act as a stark reminder for both us citizens and policymakers about what is at stake in the 2024 European Parliament elections. The potential victory of far-right groups is not only plausible but represents a tangible risk that we cannot afford to dismiss lightly. In June, citizens will have the power to shape the future of the EU. However, the burden of responsibility should not solely rest on their shoulders. While center-left European leaders cannot and should not dictate voters’ choices, they can offer a credible alternative to this dangerous shift. By demonstrating that populism and extremism are never viable solutions, even in times of profound crisis, they could play a crucial role in safeguarding the integrity and stability of the European project.