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By Denisa Michaela Alexijová
In February, the German public voted for its new government and future chancellor. The elections, which had the biggest turnout in the history of the country, resulted in an expected (though not particularly triumphant) win for the CDU/CSU party led by Friedrich Merz. The new government has not yet been officially appointed, and negotiations about its final composition are still ongoing. However, the likely future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is already facing criticism. The CDU leader was supposed to be the one to stop the rise of the far-right AfD and restore the strength of the conservative bloc. Instead, Merz is facing political pressure and a loss of trust — even before officially taking office as chancellor.
Merz’s Hollow Win
The snap elections took place on February 23rd, and, as most polls and analysts had predicted, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), returned to power after four years in opposition. The CDU/CSU bloc secured 28.5% of the vote, while the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, garnered only 16.4%, finishing in third place. This outcome represents a significant blow and humiliation for the Social Democrats—especially considering it marks their worst federal election result since 1887, and the largest loss of support compared to their previous performance.
However, the biggest cause for celebration likely belongs to the extremist, populist far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD), led by Alice Weidel. The party, which was publicly endorsed during the campaign by Elon Musk, secured 20.8% of the vote, claiming second place and achieving its best result since its founding. The AfD performed particularly well in the former East Germany, where it even emerged as the outright winner in some regions. During the campaign, the party focused heavily on the issue of migration, and its support has continued to grow even two months after the election. In a poll published at the beginning of April, the AfD once again surpassed its previous record-high level of support. The Left also delivered a notably strong performance, which is being widely interpreted as a political comeback, in the context of this year’s election.
The elections were anticipated by a tense campaign. During the pre-election period, several terrorist attacks occurred in the country. The fact that the perpetrators had a migration background sparked a nationwide debate on immigration, which became the central issue of the campaign. But even after the election results were announced and coalition negotiations began, the atmosphere has shown no signs of improvement — neither according to public opinion polls nor expert assessments.
Big Promises, Bigger Price Tag
The conservative CDU and CSU, along with the center-left SPD, have recently reached an agreement to form a coalition government. The government is expected to take office on May 6, when the parliament will elect Friedrich Merz as the new chancellor. The new coalition is preparing to implement a series of bold and unprecedented measures. The most significant and widely debated among them is the suspension of the so-called German balanced budget amendment — known in German as the Schuldenbremse — a constitutional rule that limits government borrowing and aims to ensure long-term fiscal discipline. Its suspension marks a historic shift in German economic policy, and it is tied to the adoption of a massive €500 billion investment package targeting infrastructure, defence, social housing construction, and digitalization. A substantial portion, €100 billion, will be allocated specifically for climate investment, a key condition pushed through by The Greens (the green political party) as part of the coalition agreement. The package has already been approved by the German parliament, the Bundestag.
Passing this investment package is crucial for Germany, as years of fiscal austerity have taken a significant toll on the country’s infrastructure. For instance, the transport network is in poor condition — for example, this is demonstrated by operational issues faced by Deutsche Bahn. Similarly, digitalization at the local government level remains seriously underdeveloped.
A significant portion of the funds will also go toward defence spending. The German army has long been underfunded, and the CDU leader promised that he is willing to “do whatever it takes on defence“ in order to protect freedom and peace. However, this commitment means that Germany will need to invest €30 billion annually to meet the current NATO target of spending 2 % of GDP on defence.
Support Slips, Critics Rise
Friedrich Merz is also striving to position himself as a strong leader in foreign policy. Following the widely criticized meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House — and the American administration’s increasing adoption of pro-Russian narratives — Merz firmly sided with Ukraine. He has also begun advocating for the greatest possible independence of European states from transatlantic dependencies, and at the Munich Security Conference in March, he stated: “If we don’t hear the wake-up call now, it might be too late for the entire European Union.”, and again in April, he declared: “The key message to Donald Trump is: Germany is back on track.“ For Merz, who has been a lifelong admirer of the United States and American politics, this must represent a deeply personal blow. Within the European Union, he is also a vocal advocate for upholding the rule of law and a critic of countries that fail to respect this principle — such as Orbán’s Hungary.
However, all of Merz’s efforts mentioned above have not been met with strong public support. The CDU/CSU’s approval ratings continue to decline, while the AfD keeps gaining ground in recent polls. According to a survey conducted in early April, 60% of respondents believe that Friedrich Merz is not suitable to serve as chancellor. Even some members of his own party criticize him for trying too hard to appease the coalition partner, the SPD, with his proposed measures. It is true that, so far, it has mostly been the CDU/CSU that has made concessions during the negotiations, while the SPD has refused to yield on conservative demands for tax breaks for businesses and higher earners. A lot of criticism regarding the political direction of the coalition is also coming from the CDU/CSU’s youth organization, the Young Union, which even wrote an open letter to Friedrich Merz, in which they criticized the leader for his recent actions.
What is more surprising is that the approval of the massive investment package has garnered more support abroad than at home. Merz’s domestic critics argue that he is failing to fulfil his pre-election promises and that, by adopting such large-scale investment measures, he is steering the CDU toward the political center rather than to the right. This raises growing questions about Merz’s ability to lead both his party and the country through a period of major transformation, both at home and on the international stage.