Source: Nicolas Tucat/AFP/
By Marco La Rocca
In the wake of persistent insecurity across the European continent — exacerbated by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and growing uncertainty about the durability of transatlantic security guarantees — Germany under Chancellor Friedrich Merz has embarked on a profound revamp in defence and security policy. Once known for its post-war restraint and limited military ambition, Germany is now positioning itself as a central pillar of European defence, pursuing ambitious plans to modernise its armed forces, expand military spending and engage more directly in shaping collective security.
At the core of Merz’s defence agenda lies the recognition that the traditional, cautionary approach to military power that previously dominated German politics for decades is no longer fit for a strategic environment that is marked by major-power competition and asymmetric threats. Mindful of this, the chancellor and his coalition partners notably agreed on significant reforms to Germany’s fiscal architecture, particularly regarding the so-called “debt brake”, that restricted federal borrowing and, by extension, defence expenditure. Under this new framework, defence spending that exceeds 1% of gross domestic product would not be constrained by the debt brake, enabling Berlin to finance a series of large-scale investments without breaching established fiscal limits.
Rearmament, Recruitment, and Force Expansion
Since early 2025 Berlin has pushed towards making Germany a leading military power within Europe by leveraging the debt brake reform. As part of this narrative, significant defence and capabilities investments have been launched across multiple domains, including land, air and integrated air and missile defence systems.
This has led to a growing emphasis on boosting defence acquisition and modernising the Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces. Major German defence firms, such as Rheinmetall, are expanding into new domains, notably naval capabilities, signifying an industrial transformation aligned with Berlin’s strategic priorities. Investments have also been directed towards non conventional assets, Germany has been increasingly vocal for the European Sky Shield Initiative, which aims to deploy high-end air defence capabilities across a coalition of 21 European states, deterring aggressions to Europe’s airspace.
Strategic ambition aside, Merz’s vision confronts substantial structural challenges within the German military system. Achieving the objective of building one of the largest and most capable armies in Europe would require significant expansion not only in hardware but also in manpower. As of early this year, Germany’s total force strength, including regular troops, reservists, and specialized components, numbered around 180,000 active personnel, a figure deemed insufficient for the scale of ambition envisioned at the 2025 NATO summit (260,000 units). Merz proposed several measures, from issuing greater recruitment incentives to even reinstating conscription, in the absence of sufficient voluntary enlistment.
Significant political and social hurdles are presented when discussing manpower expansion and modernisation of equipment. Within Germany, attitudes toward military service and foreign engagement,shaped by historical legacies and public resistance to prolonged military commitments, remain complex. Merz will not only need to create successful legislative and budgetary maneuvering, but also to build popular and political support across a spectrum of constituencies.
Transatlantic Ties and European Autonomy
Strengthening European resilience through greater national effort risks some challenges, like Germany’s relationship with the United States. During the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, Merz, even as he emphasized Europe’s need for greater strategic autonomy, stressed the importance of maintaining strong transatlantic relations, particularly through NATO. In that speech, he urged Europeans “not to be too quick to write off the transatlantic partnership,” arguing that trust within the NATO alliance remains a “decisive competitive advantage” in an age of global power competition.
This undeniably reflects a dual strategy. German defence is still strongly dependent on US military assets and technology (Sky shield Initiative mostly relies on Patriot missiles), making the country unable to fully provide for its own security in the short term. At the same time, Berlin’s participation, alongside six other European States, in deploying a military presence to Greenland, in response to Donald Trump’s threats of annexation in January 2026, demonstrate a practical European commitment.
Industrial and Technological Dimensions of German Defence Policy
The scale and ambition of Germany’s defense transformation is not limited to budgetary increases, industrial strategyplays a central role. As noted, German defence firms are expanding into new sectors, including naval shipbuilding and advanced armaments —this industrial resurgence is not coincidental: bolstering domestic defence production is essential to reducing dependency on non-European suppliers, particularly in a security environment where supply chain vulnerabilities can compromise readiness.
A recent analysis underscores this point, noting that Germany’s investment strategy encompasses an increasing range of capabilities, from drones and ammunition to integrated air defence systems and advanced technologies with European partners. The Bundeswehr’s evolving procurement priorities reflect both national strategic demands and broader European imperatives, such as developing common capabilities that can serve coalition needs across borders. Yet this industrial expansion also raises important questions about the balance between national and European interests. While Germany’s defense industry stands to benefit significantly, there are concerns that a dominant German role in European defence procurement could shape market dynamics in a way that crowds out smaller partners or leads to fragmentationin collaborative projects. Ensuring that European defense industrial cooperation remains inclusive and balanced will be a central challenge in the years ahead.
Strategic Implications for Europe
What does this mean for Europe? Germany’s shift from its historically restrained posture to one of assertive rearmament has the potential to recalibrate power dynamics within the European Union and NATO, placing Berlin at the center of collective defence discussions. However, the transformation also carries its risks. As Germany pursues ambitious defense expansions, internal political debates about fiscal sustainability, civil-military relations, and the role of the State in allocating resources might intensify. Moreover, whether Germany will harmonize its national defense priorities with broader EU strategic objectives remains to be seen. The question remains whether Germany’s dual approach, emphasizing both transatlantic partnership and European autonomy, can be sustained in the long run.
Germany stands at a crossroad of defence policy. It has concretely moved from the country’s historically neutral stance and kickstarted an intensive wave of reform and investment in a sector that is increasingly crucial for the security of the entire continent. Yet the success of this transformation will depend on the intersection of political will, industrial capacity, and strategic partnerships across the EU and beyond. If successful, Germany’s defense revamp could reshape the balance of security power on the continent. However, a strong nation does not necessarily make Europe more secure if its efforts do not propel the entire Union towards the same direction.